Kennedy carrot & stick to States: increase housing 3% a year, if you do increase or if not reduce

Housing Crisis

“He recognizes we have a housing crisis and we do. Ten years ago, the average American first-time home buyer was 28. Today, it’s 38.”

Kennedy’s framework:

• Housing crisis acknowledged
• First-time buyer age shift
• 28 → 38
• Decade-long delay
• Measurable problem

The American Dream delay:

• Home ownership deferred
• Rental framework extended
• Life milestones delayed
• Family formation impact
• Economic consequence

Federal Authority Limits

“Unfortunately, the United States Congress and the federal government, though we think we do, we don’t command the tides of housing.”

Kennedy’s framework:

• Federal authority limited
• Housing market complex
• Not centrally controlled
• Congressional humility needed

The framework:

• Housing decentralized
• Zoning local
• Building codes local
• Permitting local
• Federal role limited

State-Local Control

“State and more to the point local government controls housing. We persist in giving state and local government mandates and telling them what to do.”

Kennedy’s framework:

• State government role
• Local government primary
• Federal mandates excessive
• Top-down framework failing

Mandate Failure

“And they either don’t do it or find ways not to do it because of their own peculiar and sometimes parochial politics.”

The local resistance framework:

• Mandates ignored
• Evasion strategies
• Parochial politics
• Local resistance
• Mandate failure

The specific issues:

• NIMBY (Not In My Backyard)
• Zoning restrictions
• Density limits
• Environmental reviews
• Community opposition

Turner Framework

“I’m going to repeat what I said to Mr. Tarny when he was here. I think that we should, if we want more housing starts in America, we should set a reasonable goal for every state.”

Scott Turner:

• HUD Secretary nominee
• Former Texas state legislator
• Former NFL player (Denver Broncos)
• Entrepreneur
• Trump loyalist

“I would want to do that with you. I don’t know whether that’s 3% or 5%.”

Kennedy’s framework:

• Reasonable goal
• 3% or 5% annually
• Collaborative
• Flexible framework

Carrot and Stick

“And we should turn to the states and say, we expect you to increase housing starts by 3% a year. If you don’t, that’s your call, but we will reduce your federal support, apportionate to the amount below the 3%.”

The stick framework:

• State misses target
• Federal support reduced
• Proportionate reduction
• Financial consequence

“If you will do it, we will increase your federal support by the amount you exceed 3%.”

The carrot framework:

• Target met
• Federal support increased
• Proportionate increase
• Reward framework

“And leave it to state and local government on how to do it. Carrot and stick.”

The framework:

• State autonomy preserved
• How to achieve local choice
• Federal role: incentives
• State role: execution
• Clear framework

Support for Turner

“I think Mr. Turner understands that. To sum up, I think we ought to back our chairman. I’m not saying Central War has any ill motive here, but this will delay us.”

Kennedy’s framework:

• Turner understands
• Back chairman
• Central War (likely reference to other senator’s concerns)
• Delay framework
• Move forward

“We need to get started. We need housing in America. And I think our chairman has laid out the very solid reasons why we should go forward.”

Kennedy’s conclusion:

• Need to start
• Housing needed
• Chairman correct
• Move forward
• Confirm Turner

HUD Context

Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD):

• Created 1965
• Housing policies
• Public housing
• Section 8 vouchers
• Community Development Block Grants
• Fair Housing enforcement
• Various programs

HUD Secretary role:

• Cabinet-level
• Senate confirmation
• Policy leadership
• Budget ~$70 billion
• Programs management

Scott Turner Background

Scott Turner:

• NFL Denver Broncos (receiver)
• Texas state House (2013-2017)
• Executive Director White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council
• Black American
• Trump ally
• Conservative framework

Turner’s HUD framework:

• Opportunity zones expansion
• Public housing reform
• Section 8 reform
• Market-based solutions
• Local control emphasis

Housing Crisis Specifics

The U.S. housing crisis:

• Supply shortage ~3-4 million units
• Prices up ~50% since 2020
• Mortgage rates elevated
• Construction inputs expensive
• Labor shortage
• Regulatory burden

The first-time buyer age:

• 1981: median 29 years
• 2000: median 31 years
• 2010: median 30 years
• 2023: median 35 years
• 2024: median 38 years

The trend:

• Delayed home ownership
• Rental framework longer
• Family formation delayed
• Economic consequences
• Social implications

Federalism Framework

Kennedy’s federalism framework:

• States primary
• Federal support
• Local control
• Incentive-based
• Not command-and-control

The framework aligns with:

• Constitutional framework
• Conservative framework
• 10th Amendment
• Subsidiarity principle
• Limited federal government

Housing Goals Math

3% annual increase:

• Current ~1.4 million starts annually
• 3% = 42,000 additional starts
• 10 years = 420,000+
• 3% compound = ~500,000
• Meaningful framework

5% annual increase:

• 70,000 additional first year
• 10 years substantially larger
• More aggressive
• More impact

Parochial Politics Framework

Local housing resistance:

• Homeowner NIMBY
• Local developer preferences
• Zoning board conservatism
• Historic preservation
• Environmental concerns

The political framework:

• Homeowners vote local
• Renters vote less
• Political framework favors incumbents
• Status quo preserved
• Change difficult

Federal Support Framework

Federal housing support:

• CDBG
• HOME grants
• Section 8 vouchers
• Public housing funding
• Various programs
• Billions annually

Proportionate reduction:

• Performance-based
• Incentivizes action
• Compliance framework
• Real consequences
• Genuine leverage

Turner’s Support

Turner’s confirmation:

• Senate Banking Committee
• Kennedy’s support
• Republican framework
• Eventual floor vote
• Likely confirmed

The framework:

• Kennedy endorsement substantial
• Banking Committee Republican
• Chairman’s move
• Moving forward
• Trump administration support

Housing Policy Framework

Trump’s HUD priorities:

• Opportunity zones
• Zoning reform
• Housing supply
• Regulatory reduction
• Local control
• Market-based

Biden-era framework (reversed):

• YIMBY mandates
• Regulatory framework
• Racial equity framework
• Various programs
• Coordinated approach

Significance

Kennedy’s HUD framework captured:

1. Housing crisis acknowledgment: 28 to 38
2. Federal authority limits: State/local primary
3. Mandate failure: Local evasion
4. Carrot and stick: Incentive-based framework
5. Turner support: Confirmation forward

Kennedy’s framework represents sophisticated conservative approach. Not abandoning federal role but redirecting it. Carrot and stick preserves state autonomy while providing leverage.

The 38-year-old first-time buyer framework captures crisis severity. Decade of delay measurable. Major life milestone postponed for entire generation.

The “parochial politics” framework captures local resistance. Mandates ignored because local political framework values status quo. Federal mandates ineffective without enforcement mechanism.

Kennedy’s carrot and stick — proportionate reward and penalty — represents proven framework. Not binary compliance but graduated response. Incentive-based governance.

Key Takeaways

• Kennedy on housing crisis: “He recognizes we have a housing crisis and we do. Ten years ago, the average American first-time home buyer was 28. Today, it’s 38.”
• Kennedy on federal authority: “Unfortunately, the United States Congress and the federal government, though we think we do, we don’t command the tides of housing. State and more to the point local government controls housing.”
• Kennedy on mandate failure: “We persist in giving state and local government mandates and telling them what to do. And they either don’t do it or find ways not to do it because of their own peculiar and sometimes parochial politics.”
• Kennedy on carrot and stick: “We should turn to the states and say, we expect you to increase housing starts by 3% a year. If you don’t, that’s your call, but we will reduce your federal support, apportionate to the amount below the 3%. If you will do it, we will increase your federal support by the amount you exceed 3%. And leave it to state and local government on how to do it. Carrot and stick.”
• Kennedy on Turner support: “I think Mr. Turner understands that … We need to get started. We need housing in America.”