Lankford: Quarter Million Illegal Crossings in December — Breaking Traditional Pattern of Holiday Slowdown

In January 2023, Senator James Lankford shared Border Patrol perspective on the unprecedented December 2022 border numbers. “I’ve met with the Border Patrol many times over the years, and one of the things they’ll often talk to me about is they finally get a break each December. Because typically, because of Christmas, quite frankly, not as many people cross illegally during the Christmas time. They stay home with families. And so December is usually a down month for illegal crossings, and it is year after year after year until this year,” Lankford said. The unprecedented reality: “This year, there was a record number of people illegally crossing in December. So instead of going down, it actually went up. With a quarter million people illegally cross our Southwest border in one month. That was last month in December. A quarter million people. This is a growing issue that requires attention.”

The December Pattern

December pattern:

Historical — Slower month.

Christmas — Family time.

Cultural factor — Real.

Year after year — Established.

Border Patrol observation — Documented.

The December slowdown had been traditional pattern. People wanted to be home for Christmas. Migration dropped. Border Patrol got brief respite. This was well-established seasonal pattern.

”Finally Get a Break”

Border Patrol experience:

Year-round intense — Normally.

December respite — Traditional.

Family time — Also for them.

Limited break — Historically.

Valued relief — By agents.

Border Patrol was overwhelmed year-round. December’s traditional slowdown provided agents brief relief. This human element was important context for current crisis.

”Stay Home With Families”

Cultural framing:

Family centric — Migration patterns.

Christmas — Universal celebration.

Home preference — Cultural.

Migration calculations — Seasonal.

Predictable — Historically.

The assumption that people preferred being home with families for Christmas was culturally grounded. Migration had followed this pattern for decades. Current breaking of pattern was significant.

”Year After Year After Year”

Pattern consistency:

Decades — Of seasonal pattern.

Reliable — Drop in December.

Exception — Now.

Pattern break — Significant.

Data shift — Meaningful.

The decades-long seasonal pattern breaking was genuinely significant. When established patterns change, something fundamental has shifted. This required explanation and attention.

”Until This Year”

The pattern break:

2022 — Year of break.

Historic departure — From norm.

System signal — Strong.

Policy response — Needed.

Unprecedented — Situation.

The 2022 December was unprecedented. Breaking decades of seasonal pattern meant underlying factors had fundamentally changed. This demanded policy response.

”A Record Number”

December 2022 record:

Quarter million — Crossings.

Highest December ever — Likely.

Pattern break — Dramatic.

System capacity — Exceeded.

Political urgency — Justified.

Having record December crossings while historically it had been slow month was dramatic. The underlying drivers had intensified to override seasonal factors.

”Instead of Going Down, It Actually Went Up”

The direction change:

Expected — Down.

Actual — Up.

Dramatic reversal — Of pattern.

System overwhelmed — Further.

Significance — Clear.

The expected seasonal decline became unprecedented increase. This wasn’t gradual drift but dramatic reversal. Something fundamental had shifted in migration calculus.

”A Quarter Million People”

The specific number:

250,000 — Approximately.

One month — Single month.

Southwest border — Location.

Record level — Documented.

Overwhelming scale — For processing.

Quarter million in one month was overwhelming. Even distributed across entire border, this was thousands per day. Processing capacity couldn’t match the volume.

”This Is a Growing Issue That Requires Attention”

The call to action:

Growing issue — Acknowledged.

Attention required — Stated.

Policy response — Needed.

Political pressure — Implied.

Action demand — Clear.

Lankford’s call for attention was appropriate. Record-breaking numbers required response. The political pressure was building across multiple fronts.

The Historical Seasonality

Historical seasonality:

Summer peaks — Traditional.

Winter valleys — Traditional.

Weather factors — Border crossing.

Smuggler strategies — Seasonal.

Family calendars — Also.

Border crossing had shown consistent seasonality. Summer months saw more crossings due to weather and other factors. Winter months were typically slower. 2022 broke this pattern.

The Drivers of Pattern Break

Pattern break drivers:

Economic pressure — In source countries.

Political instability — Various.

Smuggler infrastructure — Grown.

Social networks — Established.

Policy signals — Perceived.

Multiple drivers could explain pattern break. Severe conditions in countries of origin. Smuggler networks operating more efficiently year-round. Perceptions about U.S. policies and opportunities.

The Policy Signals

Policy signals perceived:

Parole expansion — Incentive.

Processing faster — Than legal.

Release patterns — Observed.

Asylum processing — Lengthy.

Administration rhetoric — Mixed.

Migrants and smugglers had perceived policy signals from U.S. administration choices. Whether signals were intended or not, they affected migration decisions.

The Communication Networks

Communication networks:

Social media — Spreading info.

WhatsApp — Common tool.

Word of mouth — Important.

Smuggler info — Detailed.

Real-time updates — Possible.

Modern communication networks spread information about U.S. policies and border conditions rapidly. Migrants making decisions had current information that shaped timing.

The Smuggler Business

Smuggler business:

Year-round operations — Now.

Not just seasonal — Anymore.

Investment scale — Large.

Revenue motivation — Strong.

Cartel involvement — Deep.

Modern smuggling operations ran year-round rather than following seasonal patterns. Cartels had substantial investment requiring continuous revenue. Winter slowdowns were financially problematic for them.

The Economic Drivers

Economic drivers:

Source country conditions — Severe.

Currency devaluations — Various.

Employment absent — Home.

Remittance value — High.

Relative opportunity — Compelling.

Economic conditions in migrant source countries had deteriorated. When home situation was desperate enough, seasonal preferences became less important. Urgency overrode tradition.

The Specific Source Countries

Source countries:

Venezuela — Major source.

Cuba — Significant.

Nicaragua — Growing.

Haiti — Substantial.

Various others — Present.

The source countries had changed from traditional Central American dominance. Venezuelan, Cuban, Nicaraguan, and Haitian migration had grown substantially. Each had different drivers.

The Venezuelan Crisis

Venezuelan crisis:

Economic collapse — Severe.

Political crisis — Ongoing.

7+ million displaced — Globally.

U.S. destination — Growing.

Special circumstances — Humanitarian.

Venezuela’s crisis had displaced over 7 million people globally. Many had made journey to U.S. border. Their situation was genuinely humanitarian crisis.

The Cuban Migration

Cuban migration:

Economic crisis — Intensified.

Political repression — Continuing.

Wet foot/dry foot end — Different rules.

Growing numbers — 2021-2023.

Traditional sources — Maritime changed.

Cuban migration patterns had shifted. Traditional Florida maritime routes were less dominant. Southern border crossings had grown. Economic and political conditions in Cuba drove numbers.

The Nicaraguan Situation

Nicaraguan situation:

Ortega regime — Repressive.

Economic stagnation — Serious.

Political prisoners — Many.

Migration surge — Result.

U.S. border destination — Growing.

Nicaraguan migration to U.S. had grown substantially. The Ortega regime’s repression and economic conditions drove people to leave. Many made way to southern border.

The Haitian Crisis

Haitian crisis:

Country collapse — Effectively.

Gang control — Substantial.

Government failure — Widespread.

Security absence — Common.

Migration surge — Consequence.

Haiti’s deteriorating security and governance had driven migration. Many Haitians had first migrated to South America then continued northward to U.S. border.

The Policy Response Inadequacy

Policy response:

Parole program — For four countries.

Limited — Scale.

Short-term — Solution.

Enforcement — Paired.

Capacity — Still insufficient.

The administration’s January 2023 parole program for four countries was response but limited. 30,000 per month spread across four countries was insufficient to address actual migration pressures.

The Enforcement Mechanism

Enforcement mechanism:

Expedited removal — Designation.

Limited actual removal — Lankford claimed.

Detention capacity — Inadequate.

Court backlog — Massive.

System failure — Pattern.

The enforcement side of policy had limitations documented by Lankford and others. Designation didn’t equal removal. Actual system capacity was overwhelmed.

The December Number Significance

December significance:

Pattern break — Historic.

Scale — Overwhelming.

Trend direction — Worsening.

Response inadequate — Per critics.

Political impact — Building.

The specific December number mattered because of pattern break. In any other context, quarter million might be discussed abstractly. Breaking decades-long pattern made it viscerally concerning.

The Border Patrol Perspective

Border Patrol perspective:

Overwhelmed — Daily.

Morale issues — Real.

Resource limits — Constant.

Direction unclear — From leadership.

Political pressure — On agency.

Border Patrol agents faced difficult job. High volumes, limited resources, unclear direction from leadership, political pressures from all sides. Their experience reflected systemic strain.

The Processing Bottleneck

Processing bottleneck:

Intake — Limited.

Interviews — Backed up.

Detention — Inadequate.

Courts — Years behind.

Decisions — Slow.

Every step of processing chain was bottlenecked. Fixing one step didn’t help if others remained overwhelmed. Systemic reform was needed but had been blocked politically.

The Congressional Funding

Congressional funding:

DHS appropriations — Insufficient.

USCIS — Primarily fee-funded.

ICE — Limited.

Courts — Minimal growth.

Comprehensive — Never funded.

Congress had failed to fund comprehensive approach. Different agencies got different amounts. Coordination was limited. Modernization was underfunded.

The Political Context

Political context:

Republican House — New.

Divided government — Constraining.

Presidential politics — Looming.

Border focus — Intensifying.

Solution paralysis — Continuing.

With divided government, comprehensive immigration reform remained politically impossible. Various partial responses continued failing. Presidential election year approached without solutions.

The Lankford Credibility

Lankford credibility:

Serious senator — On immigration.

Details-focused — Consistently.

Constructive — When possible.

Border-focused — Legitimately.

Eventual negotiator — 2024.

Lankford’s consistent substantive engagement on immigration made his observations carry weight. He wasn’t purely partisan attack politician. His concerns deserved attention.

The Data Citation

Data citation:

Quarter million — Specific.

December specifically — Named.

Southwest border — Geographic.

One month — Timeframe.

Verifiable — Through CBP.

The specific data Lankford cited was verifiable through CBP border encounter statistics. If accurate, the claim was damning. Administration would need to engage with specific numbers.

The Communication Challenge

Communication challenge:

Complex data — Harder.

Simple narratives — Easier.

Administration — Preferred simpler.

Critics — Specific data.

Voter understanding — Limited often.

Conveying complex border data to voters was challenging. Both sides used simpler narratives. But specific data like Lankford’s could cut through and shape understanding.

The Policy Implications

Policy implications:

Emergency response — Needed.

Capacity building — Urgent.

Source country — Engagement.

Legal pathways — Reform.

Enforcement — Strengthening.

Multiple policy implications followed from data. Emergency response to capacity issues. Source country engagement to address drivers. Legal pathway reform. Enforcement strengthening. Comprehensive approach needed.

The Source Country Engagement

Source country engagement:

Venezuela — Political crisis.

Cuba — Economic isolation.

Nicaragua — Authoritarian regime.

Haiti — State collapse.

Coordination — Difficult.

Engaging source countries to address migration drivers was difficult. Hostile regimes, failed states, political complexity. Diplomatic challenges compounded immigration challenges.

The 2024 Campaign Setup

2024 setup:

Immigration salience — Maximum.

Data-based attacks — Effective.

Administration vulnerable — Yes.

GOP opportunity — Real.

Narrative building — Continuing.

Every month of bad border numbers built GOP 2024 narrative. Specific data points like December record crossing were ammunition. Administration struggled to counter-narrate effectively.

Key Takeaways

• Senator James Lankford cited Border Patrol historical perspective on December migration patterns.
• Traditional pattern: “December is usually a down month for illegal crossings, and it is year after year after year.”
• The break: “This year, there was a record number of people illegally crossing in December. So instead of going down, it actually went up.”
• The scale: “A quarter million people illegally cross our Southwest border in one month. That was last month in December.”
• Lankford’s call to action: “This is a growing issue that requires attention.”
• The pattern break was significant because decades-long seasonal pattern had been reliable — its breaking signaled fundamental shift in migration drivers requiring substantive response.

Transcript Highlights

The following is transcribed from the video audio (unverified — AI-generated from audio).

• I’ve met with the Board of Patrol many times over the years, and one of the things they’ll often talk to me about is they finally get a break each December.
• Because typically, because of Christmas, quite frankly, not as many people cross illegally during the Christmas time. They stay home with families.
• December is usually a down month for illegal crossings, and it is year after year after year until this year.
• This year, there was a record number of people illegally crossing in December. So instead of going down, it actually went up.
• A quarter million people illegally cross our Southwest border in one month. That was last month in December. A quarter million people.
• This is a growing issue that requires attention.

Full transcript: 133 words transcribed via Whisper AI.