Doocy: Biden Works on the Economy 'Every Day,' So Why a '100 Percent Chance of a Recession'? (October 18, 2022)

Fox News’ Peter Doocy had a simple question for the White House three weeks before the 2022 midterms. If President Joe Biden had been “working on the economy every day for 19 months,” why were Bloomberg economists forecasting “a 100 percent chance of a recession”?

The video above shows that exchange from the Oct. 18, 2022, briefing with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. Quotes are from the official transcript published by the American Presidency Project [1].

”Working on the Economy Every Day”

Doocy started with the president’s priorities. Biden had just told a Democratic crowd at Washington’s Howard Theatre that “the first bill I’ll send to Congress is to codify Roe v Wade” if Democrats kept Congress [2]. “We’ve heard the President say inflation is his top domestic priority, but now he’s saying, come next year, his first bill would be abortion related,” Doocy said. “So is his number-one domestic priority abortion or is it inflation?” [1]

Jean-Pierre ran through the president’s record: the American Rescue Plan, which she noted no Republican voted for, the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act. “He’s working on the economy every day,” she said. “I just announced yesterday — or we just announced, yesterday, hearing aids. Thirty million people are going to benefit from hearing aids, saving thousands of dollars a year. So that’s working on the economy every day” [1].

”A 100 Percent Chance of a Recession”

Doocy turned her words back on her. “So you said he’s been working on the economy every day for 19 months. Now Bloomberg economists are forecasting a 100 percent chance of a recession. So how is it that we can be barreling towards a recession and the economy is, as the President says, ‘strong as hell’?” [1]

The forecast was brand-new. A day earlier, Bloomberg Economics’ model put the chance of a recession by October 2023 at 100%, up from 65% in its previous update, Fox Business reported [3]. Three days earlier, Biden had told a reporter at a Portland, Oregon, ice cream shop that “our economy is strong as hell” [4].

Jean-Pierre answered with the job market. “What we are seeing right now is the job market is strong, the labor force is strong. And that is not what we see usually before — before a recession,” she said. “We are seeing an economy that is resilient. We are seeing an economy that is going through — to — into a transition with more stable growth, more steady growth” [1].

She closed with the administration’s slogan: “The economic policy that he’s put forward is about building the economy from the bottom to — from the bottom to the top and the middle out” [1].

”End Fossil Fuel”?

Doocy had one more. “Just if President Biden keeps going to the petroleum reserves when there are energy problems, is he giving up on his campaign pledge to end fossil fuel?” [1]

Jean-Pierre pointed the finger at the oil industry. “Oil companies are ranking [raking] in record profits,” she said, “while more than 9,000 approved drilling permits remain untapped by the oil industry.” She added: “U.S. oil production is up and on track to reach a record high this year” [1].

The next day, Biden announced another 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as HYGO News reported in its page on that release.

The White House’s Recession Line

The briefing was part of a months-long effort to wave off recession talk. The week before, Biden told CNN, “I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession. That is, we’ll move down slightly,” Fox Business reported [3].

Inflation was still running hot. Consumer prices were up 8.2% over the previous 12 months, the Labor Department had reported on Oct. 13 [5].

By the Numbers

100%: Bloomberg Economics’ October 2022 estimate of the chance of a recession by October 2023, up from 65% [3].
8.2%: the 12-month rise in consumer prices reported Oct. 13, 2022 [5].
19 months: how long Doocy said Biden had been “working on the economy every day” [1].
1.9% and 2.5%: real GDP growth in 2022 and 2023, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis [6].
9,000: the number of approved but unused drilling permits Jean-Pierre cited [1]. In February 2023, the Bureau of Land Management cut its count to fewer than 6,700, citing a database error [9].

What Happened Next

The recession didn’t come, but the pain did. The economy kept growing: real GDP rose 1.9% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023, the Commerce Department reported [6]. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle chronology lists no recession after the two-month pandemic contraction that ended in April 2020 [7].

Then the House flipped. Republicans took the House in the midterms, 222-213 [8].

Inflation stayed the issue. At that briefing, Jean-Pierre called inflation the president’s “number-one economic priority” [1]. More of her answers on the economy are collected on HYGO News’ Karine Jean-Pierre record page.