Biden Predicts “One More Shift Back to Our Side” Before Midterms — Credits Himself for Gas Price Decline From SPR Drawdown

On 10/21/2022, President Biden predicted that polls would shift in Democrats’ favor before the midterm elections — and credited his own actions for the reason why. “I think that we’re going to see one more shift back to our side in the closing days,” Biden said. “And let me tell you why I think that. We’re starting to see some of the good news on the economy. Gas prices are down sharply in 46 of the 50 states because of what I’ve been doing.” The statement explicitly linked his expectation of improved polling to declining gas prices achieved through depleting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — connecting the political dots he had denied connecting just two days earlier when he insisted the SPR releases were “not politically motivated at all."

"I Don’t Blame You — You Want to Ask About the Midterms”

Biden opened with characteristic informality. “You know, I know — and I don’t blame you — you want to ask me about the midterms,” Biden said with a laugh. “And here’s what I think.”

The preface — acknowledging the political nature of the question with good humor — set up a remarkably candid answer that would undermine his own previous statements about the non-political nature of his economic actions.

“It’s been back and forth with them ahead, us ahead, them ahead. Back and forth. And the polls have been all over the place,” Biden said, providing a fairly accurate description of the 2022 midterm polling landscape. Through most of the year, polling had alternated between Republican and Democratic advantages depending on which issue dominated the news cycle — abortion favored Democrats, economy favored Republicans, democracy concerns favored Democrats, border security favored Republicans.

”One More Shift Back to Our Side”

Biden then made his prediction. “I think that we’re going to see one more shift back to our side in the closing days,” Biden said.

The prediction was notable for its confidence. With 18 days until the election, Biden was forecasting a late Democratic surge based on specific policy outcomes he was engineering. This was not the cautious “we’ll let the voters decide” language most presidents employed before elections. It was a direct prediction of electoral movement tied to presidential action.

”Because of What I’ve Been Doing”

The critical sentence came next. “We’re starting to see some of the good news on the economy. Gas prices are down sharply in 46 of the 50 states because of what I’ve been doing,” Biden said.

The statement was a direct causal claim: gas prices were down because of Biden’s actions — specifically, the unprecedented drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that had been releasing emergency oil reserves throughout 2022. Biden was taking personal credit for the price decline and predicting that this decline would shift polls in Democrats’ favor.

The political logic was explicit: release emergency oil → lower gas prices → improve polling → win midterms. Biden laid out the chain clearly, apparently without recognizing that doing so contradicted his insistence from just 48 hours earlier that the SPR releases were “not politically motivated at all.”

The Contradiction With October 19

On October 19, 2022 — two days before this statement — Biden had been asked directly whether the SPR release was “politically motivated” and had snapped: “No, it’s not! Look, it makes sense. I’ve been doing this for how long now? It’s not politically motivated at all.”

Yet on October 21, Biden was saying: polls will shift to our side because gas prices are down because of what I’ve been doing. The statement linked his policy actions directly to expected electoral outcomes — the definition of political motivation. If you take an action, expect it to improve your party’s polling, and cite that expectation as the reason for optimism about elections, you have described a politically motivated action.

The gap between the two statements was only 48 hours, but the rhetorical distance was vast. Biden went from insisting there was no political connection to explicitly drawing one.

”46 of the 50 States”

Biden’s specific claim that gas prices were “down sharply in 46 of the 50 states” was designed to demonstrate the national scope of the price decline. The state-by-state framing served a political purpose: it ensured that voters in nearly every state could see themselves in the good news narrative Biden was constructing.

The price declines were real — the national average had fallen from its June 2022 peak of over $5 per gallon to approximately $3.80 by late October. But the broader context remained unfavorable. Gas prices were still roughly 60% higher than the $2.39 average on Inauguration Day 2021. Biden was taking credit for partially reversing a price increase that occurred under his presidency, using emergency reserves intended for genuine supply disruptions.

The SPR Drawdown by the Numbers

By October 21, 2022, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had been drawn down to approximately 400 million barrels — down from 638 million when Biden took office. The 180-million-barrel authorized release announced in March 2022 was the largest in the reserve’s 47-year history.

The reserve was approaching levels that national security experts found concerning. At 400 million barrels, the SPR held roughly 20 days of total U.S. crude oil consumption — far below the 90-day import coverage originally intended. While the U.S. was less dependent on imports than when the SPR was created, the diminished stockpile reduced the country’s ability to respond to genuine emergencies: a hurricane disrupting Gulf Coast refining, a military conflict closing shipping lanes, or a catastrophic infrastructure failure.

Biden’s plan to refill the reserve at $70 per barrel depended on oil prices falling to that level — a condition that market dynamics might or might not produce. If prices remained above $70, the reserve would stay depleted, and the emergency stockpile Biden drained for political purposes would remain unavailable for actual emergencies.

The “Deficit Reduction” Speech

Biden’s midterm prediction came during remarks ostensibly about deficit reduction — the administration’s attempt to reframe Democratic spending as fiscally responsible. The deficit had fallen from pandemic-era highs, largely because emergency spending programs (stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment, PPP) expired automatically, not because of deliberate fiscal restraint.

The White House’s ability to pivot from deficit reduction to midterm predictions to gas price credit within a single appearance illustrated the campaign-style nature of Biden’s October schedule. Every event — regardless of its stated policy purpose — was an opportunity for pre-election messaging.

Did the Shift Happen?

Biden’s prediction of “one more shift back to our side” proved partially correct. Democrats performed better than historical patterns predicted in the November 2022 midterms, holding the Senate with a net gain of one seat and losing the House by a narrower margin than expected.

However, the strong Democratic performance was attributed more to the Dobbs abortion decision backlash, rejection of Trump-endorsed candidates, and voter concerns about democracy than to gas prices or economic sentiment. Exit polls showed that voters who cited the economy as their top concern broke heavily Republican. The “shift” Biden predicted came from abortion and democracy voters, not from the gas price decline he cited as the cause.

The irony was rich: Biden predicted a polling shift based on gas prices, but the actual shift came from entirely different issues. His SPR gambit may have prevented an even worse Democratic performance by taking some edge off the gas price issue, but it was not the primary driver of the better-than-expected midterm results.

Key Takeaways

• Biden predicted “one more shift back to our side” before the midterms, explicitly crediting declining gas prices “because of what I’ve been doing.”
• The statement directly contradicted his insistence two days earlier that SPR releases were “not politically motivated at all.”
• He claimed gas prices were down in 46 of 50 states — while prices remained roughly 60% above Inauguration Day levels.
• The SPR had been drawn down to approximately 400 million barrels, its lowest level since the 1980s.
• Democrats’ better-than-expected midterm performance was driven primarily by abortion and democracy concerns, not the gas price decline Biden cited.

Transcript Highlights

The following is transcribed from the video audio (unverified — AI-generated from audio).

• You know, I know, and I don’t blame you, you want to ask me about the midterms.
• It’s been back and forth with them ahead, us ahead, them ahead. The polls have been all over the place.
• I think that we’re going to see one more shift back to our side in the closing days.
• And let me tell you why I think that.
• We’re starting to see some of the good news on the economy.
• Gas prices are down sharply in 46 of the 50 states because of what I’ve been doing.

Full transcript: 101 words transcribed via Whisper AI.