Biden Before the 2022 Midterms: 'One More Shift Back to Our Side in the Closing Days' (October 21, 2022)

On the morning of October 21, 2022, President Biden spoke in the Roosevelt Room of the White House about the final budget numbers for the 2022 fiscal year, which showed the federal deficit had been cut roughly in half [1][2]. Two days earlier he had announced another release of 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (see our article on that announcement). At the end of his remarks, with the midterm elections 18 days away, he turned to the polls. This short clip shows that passage. The clip’s title says Biden linked the polls to depleting the oil reserve; the transcript shows he credited falling gas prices to “what I’ve been doing” without mentioning the reserve. Quotes are from the official transcript published by the American Presidency Project [1].

Key Moments

”One more shift back to our side”

“You know, I know — and I don’t blame you — you want to ask me about the midterms,” Biden said, to laughter. “It’s been back and forth with them ahead, us ahead, them ahead. Back and forth. And the polls have been all over the place. I think that we’re going to see one more shift back to our side in the closing days. And let me tell you why I think that. We’re starting to see some of the good news on the economy. Gas prices are down sharply in 46 of the 50 States because of what I’ve been doing” [1].

”A record decrease”

“The new deficit numbers, there’s a — it’s a record — a record decrease. It’s never happened before,” Biden said. “The election is not a referendum, it’s a choice.” He argued that Republicans “want to double down on the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy,” and that they wanted to abolish the new 15 percent minimum tax “that I insisted that those 55 corporations who made $40 billion and didn’t pay a red cent” [1].

”Three plans to cut Social Security”

“They have three — not one, not two — three plans to cut Social Security benefits. Three plans,” Biden said. “And they’re not going to stop there. They’re going to do Big Pharma’s bidding to repeal my plan to allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drugs prices.” He concluded: “It’s mega-MAGA trickle-down. … That’s why I think that we’re going to do just fine” [1].

Fact Check

• “A record decrease.” Accurate as a number, misleading as credit. The Treasury Department reported that “the deficit fell by $1.4 trillion — the largest one-year decrease in the Federal deficit in American history,” to $1.375 trillion [2]. But the Congressional Budget Office said the decline “reflected waning spending in response to the coronavirus pandemic and increased revenues driven by higher inflation and the continued recovery of economic activity” [3]. FactCheck.org, in its list of 2022’s biggest falsehoods, faulted Biden “for giving his policies too much credit for a significant reduction in the federal deficit,” noting that “most of the reduction in deficits was the result of expiring emergency pandemic spending” [4].
• The deficit was still large. At 5.5 percent of GDP, the 2022 deficit was “still larger than the 4.6 percent recorded in 2019 — the most recent year not affected by the pandemic,” and above the 50-year average of 3.6 percent, CBO reported [3].
• “Gas prices are down sharply … because of what I’ve been doing.” Prices were falling: the national average fell from $3.912 a gallon in the week of October 10 to $3.769 in the week of October 24 [5]. The Treasury Department’s own estimate credited the reserve releases with lowering gas prices by “17 cents to 42 cents per gallon” [6].
• “55 corporations who made $40 billion.” Based on a 2021 study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which found that 55 large corporations paid no federal income tax on “almost $40.5 billion in U.S. pretax income in 2020” [7]. ITEP is an advocacy-oriented tax research group.
• “Three plans to cut Social Security.” Overstated. FactCheck.org found that Democrats “attempted to scare up votes by claiming that Republicans had a plan to ‘end’ the Social Security and Medicare programs based on a proposal that few Republicans supported,” and that “neither Scott nor Johnson said they wanted to ‘end’ these programs for seniors” [4]. PolitiFact found Biden “mostly on track” in saying Sen. Ron Johnson wanted Social Security and Medicare to be approved annually [8].

What Happened Next

• The midterms: Democrats kept the Senate with 50 seats and Vice President Harris’s tiebreaking vote, and Republicans won a slim House majority, a smaller one than many had predicted [9][10]. In that sense, Biden’s prediction of a late shift was partly borne out.

Sources

1. The American Presidency Project: Remarks on the Federal Budget Deficit and an Exchange With Reporters (October 21, 2022)
2. U.S. Department of the Treasury: Joint statement of Secretary Yellen and OMB Director Young on budget results for fiscal year 2022 (October 21, 2022)
3. Congressional Budget Office: Monthly Budget Review, Summary for Fiscal Year 2022 (November 8, 2022)
4. FactCheck.org: The Whoppers of 2022 (December 2022)
5. U.S. Energy Information Administration: Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices
6. U.S. Department of the Treasury: The Price Impact of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release (July 26, 2022)
7. Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy: 55 Corporations Paid $0 in Federal Taxes on 2020 Profits (April 2, 2021)
8. PolitiFact: Biden mostly on track that Ron Johnson wants annual approval of Social Security and Medicare (September 26, 2022)
9. NPR: Democrats retain control of the Senate after holding Nevada seat (November 12, 2022)
10. NPR: Republicans narrowly retake control of the House, setting up divided government (November 16, 2022)